“Allies, Autocrats, and America: The Balkan Equation” Event

10 Jun “Allies, Autocrats, and America: The Balkan Equation” Event

Dear friends, colleagues and partners,

We are pleased to invite you to an exclusive  Pacific Council online discussion titled “Allies, Autocrats, and America: The Balkan Equation“, presided over by Ms. Milena Berić, Executive Director of Association KROKODIL and a Pacific Council member. Ms. Berić will be joined by: Ms. Melissa Hooper, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, former Senior Advisor at USAID, and a distinguished expert in rule of law and democracy and Ms. Frauke Seebass, Visiting Fellow at the German Institute for Foreign & Security Affairs (SWP) in Brussels, and an Associate Fellow with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

This event will take place on June 12, 2025, at:
– 10:00 AM (Pacific Standard Time)
– 1:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time)
– 7:00 PM (Central European Time)

To confirm your participation, please RSVP by sending your details to events@pacificcouncil.org. You will receive further details and the access link upon confirmation.
 

The conversation will examine the state of political relations and democracy in the Balkans. As political tensions rise across the region, civil society remains a vital force in safeguarding democracy. This event will explore the complex geopolitical dynamics shaping the Western Balkans through three key segments. 

• The Western Balkans and Trump 2.0
• Rise of Authoritarianism and Geopolitical Rivalries 
• The Power of Civil Society and Popular Movements for Democracy 

The Western Balkans and Trump 2.0

Donald Trump’s second term poses a challenge to the established security framework of the Western Balkans, which the U.S. has helped build over decades through diplomatic, political, and military efforts.  These include efforts still upheld by the U.S., such as the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia, as well as Kosovo’s pursuit of independence, which contributes to regional stability. The potential erosion of the regional security architecture increases the risk that regional cracks—particularly in Kosovo, Bosnia, and Serbia—will undermine peace and stability, and be exploited by both external powers and internal factions.

Leaders such as Serbia’s Vučić and Bosnia’s Dodik have sought personal and economic benefits from previous U.S. engagement. Trump’s administration cultivated relationships with these figures, supporting their political and economic ambitions, primarily real estate investments that have deepened ties with Serbia and Albania. Trump’s tariffs, while primarily impacting trade with the EU, could indirectly affect the Balkans by slowing GDP growth—models suggest a mild slowdown in growth. Local governments are not powerless; they have the tools and the responsibility to act to prevent a more serious fallout. Their actions, alliances, and policies in the coming months will be critical.

Rise of Authoritarianism and Geopolitical Rivalries  

A resurgence of authoritarianism, coupled with militarization, threatens the global order, pushing it toward a tipping point. Around the world, enemies of liberal democracy are accelerating their assaults, undermining norms, eroding institutions, and supporting each other strategically. Over a third of the global population now lives in “Not Free” countries – the highest since 1997.  

The implications are profound for the Western Balkans: geopolitics is increasingly influenced by external powers, with Russia, China, and regional autocrats leveraging the chaos to consolidate power. The recent past showcases an increase in unilateral Western Balkan policies, exemplified by Trump’s engagement with Serbia and Kosovo, which, while providing some progress, risk fueling regional tensions and undermining NATO’s credibility. U.S. leadership could reinforce illiberal leaders, deepen regional insecurity, and challenge EU accession prospects. 

The Power of Civil Society and Popular Movements for Democracy 

Across the region, civic activism remains vibrant and resilient. Mass protests have erupted in Tbilisi, Budapest, Bucharest, and Belgrade, with tens of thousands of citizens demanding democratic reforms and accountability. In Serbia, shoddy infrastructure, corruption, and authoritarian entrenchment have sparked months of mass protests, most notably in Belgrade, where over 300,000 people took to the streets in March. These demonstrations are driven by youth, civil society, and a shared desire for democratic change despite government repression and attempts to curb dissent.  

The protests in Georgia and Serbia reveal commonalities: embattled governments with authoritarian tendencies are overstaying their welcome, and the protesters remain committed to reform, often at great personal risk. These civic movements are vital to the region’s future, showcasing the enduring power of civil society to challenge authoritarian power, safeguard democratic values, and inspire broader societal transformation.